{"id":160,"date":"2025-07-27T13:06:26","date_gmt":"2025-07-27T11:06:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/giulia-governatori.alwaysdata.net\/?p=160"},"modified":"2025-08-12T20:35:56","modified_gmt":"2025-08-12T18:35:56","slug":"warning-fake-analyst","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/giulia-governatori.alwaysdata.net\/fr\/warning-fake-analyst\/","title":{"rendered":"Statistiques trompeuses: m\u00e9fiez-vous des faux experts"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator aligncenter has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:23px\"><strong>Statistics help when read with care; interpretation makes the difference \u2014 beware of self\u2011styled \u201canalysts\u201d who sling percentages to steer you.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading160_01530c-af, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading160_01530c-af[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading160_01530c-af\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading160_01530c-af mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading160_01530c-af[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading160_01530c-af\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading160_01530c-af img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading160_01530c-af[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading160_01530c-af\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<h2 class=\"kt-adv-heading160_01530c-af wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading160_01530c-af\">The trap of raw numbers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Today, we live in a world where anyone can easily publish numbers, share survey results, or even&nbsp; claim to be a \u201cdata expert\u201d after a few quick Google searches. However, as statistician David&nbsp; Spiegelhalter brilliantly reminds us in his book <em>The Art of Statistics<\/em>, data alone doesn&#8217;t tell the full&nbsp; story\u2014it&#8217;s the interpretation that changes everything.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-default is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>\u201cData do not speak for themselves. We speak for them.\u201d<\/strong><br>\u2014 <em>David Spiegelhalter<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading160_989096-c5, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading160_989096-c5[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading160_989096-c5\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading160_989096-c5 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading160_989096-c5[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading160_989096-c5\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading160_989096-c5 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading160_989096-c5[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading160_989096-c5\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<h3 class=\"kt-adv-heading160_989096-c5 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading160_989096-c5\">The misleading 99% example<\/h3>\n\n\n<style>.kb-image160_c29467-33.kb-image-is-ratio-size, .kb-image160_c29467-33 .kb-image-is-ratio-size{max-width:228px;width:100%;}.wp-block-kadence-column > .kt-inside-inner-col > .kb-image160_c29467-33.kb-image-is-ratio-size, .wp-block-kadence-column > .kt-inside-inner-col > .kb-image160_c29467-33 .kb-image-is-ratio-size{align-self:unset;}.kb-image160_c29467-33 figure{max-width:228px;}.kb-image160_c29467-33 .image-is-svg, .kb-image160_c29467-33 .image-is-svg img{width:100%;}.kb-image160_c29467-33 .kb-image-has-overlay:after{opacity:0.3;}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-image kb-image160_c29467-33\"><figure class=\"alignright size-medium\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"368\" height=\"600\" src=\"https:\/\/giulia-governatori.alwaysdata.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/71HNF5BMTCL._UF10001000_QL80_-copie-368x600.webp\" alt=\"couverture livre &quot;The art of Statistics&quot; de David Spiegelhalter\" class=\"kb-img wp-image-1288\" srcset=\"https:\/\/giulia-governatori.alwaysdata.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/71HNF5BMTCL._UF10001000_QL80_-copie-368x600.webp 368w, https:\/\/giulia-governatori.alwaysdata.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/71HNF5BMTCL._UF10001000_QL80_-copie-92x150.webp 92w, https:\/\/giulia-governatori.alwaysdata.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/71HNF5BMTCL._UF10001000_QL80_-copie-7x12.webp 7w, https:\/\/giulia-governatori.alwaysdata.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/71HNF5BMTCL._UF10001000_QL80_-copie.webp 613w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 368px) 100vw, 368px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Let\u2019s look at a concrete example Spiegelhalter cites, drawn from a public awareness campaign by&nbsp; the city of London. The campaign proudly claimed: \u201c99% of young Londoners do not commit&nbsp; serious violent acts.\u201d At first glance, the message feels reassuring and positive. But on closer&nbsp; inspection, the remaining 1% still represents about 10,000 young people\u2014meaning there could be&nbsp; 10,000 individuals involved in serious violent crimes. So the supposedly comforting statistic&nbsp; actually hides a rather alarming reality.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now imagine reading a headline like: \u201cThe majority of crimes in France are committed by&nbsp; foreigners.\u201d A statement like that immediately grabs attention and causes concern. But dig a little&nbsp; deeper and you\u2019ll find that the underlying statistics are often oversimplified\u2014or even misleading.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In fact, data collection often relies on binary labels like \u201cFrench\u201d or \u201cnon-French.\u201d But the category&nbsp; \u201cnon-French\u201d may include individuals whose origin is unknown, such as undocumented people at&nbsp; the time of arrest, those who refuse to answer, or even people born in France who haven\u2019t yet&nbsp; acquired citizenship. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The result? An artificially inflated category that distorts the picture and can&nbsp; unfairly fuel stereotypes.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading160_b6a20e-1d, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading160_b6a20e-1d[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading160_b6a20e-1d\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading160_b6a20e-1d mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading160_b6a20e-1d[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading160_b6a20e-1d\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading160_b6a20e-1d img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading160_b6a20e-1d[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading160_b6a20e-1d\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<h2 class=\"kt-adv-heading160_b6a20e-1d wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading160_b6a20e-1d\">Context changes everything<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>This is a clear example of how poorly interpreted data can mislead the public. It highlights the&nbsp; crucial need for analysis carried out by qualified professionals.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Similarly, Spiegelhalter often refers to another well-known case: the increased risk of colorectal&nbsp; cancer among bacon sandwich lovers. Saying the risk increases by \u201c18%\u201d may sound terrifying\u2014 but in reality, it only means going from 6 to 7 cases per 100 people. Without the proper context, this&nbsp; kind of figure can easily mislead and exaggerate the actual risk.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading160_049169-92, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading160_049169-92[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading160_049169-92\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading160_049169-92 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading160_049169-92[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading160_049169-92\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading160_049169-92 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading160_049169-92[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading160_049169-92\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<h3 class=\"kt-adv-heading160_049169-92 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading160_049169-92\">How to avoid statistical traps<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>So, how can you avoid falling for these statistical traps? Here are some guidelines inspired by the&nbsp; rigorous standards of genuine data professionals:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Check the methodology<\/strong>: A large sample size doesn&#8217;t automatically make it representative.&nbsp; True analysts understand that serious studies require meticulous methods.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Be cautious of attractive graphs<\/strong>: Charts can easily deceive by using truncated axes or&nbsp; misleading visual presentations.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Understand correlation vs causation<\/strong>: Two variables moving together doesn\u2019t necessarily&nbsp; imply a cause-and-effect relationship. Professional training and deep understanding help&nbsp; distinguish these critical subtleties.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading160_6d5792-8e, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading160_6d5792-8e[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading160_6d5792-8e\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading160_6d5792-8e mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading160_6d5792-8e[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading160_6d5792-8e\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading160_6d5792-8e img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading160_6d5792-8e[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading160_6d5792-8e\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<h2 class=\"kt-adv-heading160_6d5792-8e wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading160_6d5792-8e\">Conclusion: Numbers don\u2019t lie\u2014people do<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Trusting data is important, but blindly trusting anyone interpreting them is dangerous. Genuine&nbsp; mastery of statistics requires years of study, experience, and critical thinking. So, next time you hear&nbsp; a spectacular claim supported by numbers, ensure those numbers have been handled by a real&nbsp; professional\u2014someone who truly knows how to let the data speak honestly.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Statistics help when read with care; interpretation makes the difference \u2014 beware of self\u2011styled \u201canalysts\u201d who sling percentages to steer you.\u00a0 The trap of raw numbers Today, we live in a world where anyone can easily publish numbers, share survey results, or even&nbsp; claim to be a \u201cdata expert\u201d after a few quick Google searches&#8230;.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":184,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_kad_post_transparent":"","_kad_post_title":"","_kad_post_layout":"","_kad_post_sidebar_id":"","_kad_post_content_style":"","_kad_post_vertical_padding":"","_kad_post_feature":"","_kad_post_feature_position":"","_kad_post_header":false,"_kad_post_footer":false,"_kad_post_classname":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-160","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-non-classe"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/giulia-governatori.alwaysdata.net\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/160","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/giulia-governatori.alwaysdata.net\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/giulia-governatori.alwaysdata.net\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/giulia-governatori.alwaysdata.net\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/giulia-governatori.alwaysdata.net\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=160"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/giulia-governatori.alwaysdata.net\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/160\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/giulia-governatori.alwaysdata.net\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/184"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/giulia-governatori.alwaysdata.net\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=160"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/giulia-governatori.alwaysdata.net\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=160"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/giulia-governatori.alwaysdata.net\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=160"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}